Demographic Aging, Labor Informality, and the Role of Artificial Intelligence in Health Workforce Sustainability (2025–2030)
MERCOSUR as a Demonstrative Region for Responsible Global Governance
Author: Víctor Piriz Correa, Lead Researcher – Seniors International Consulting (SICs)
The accelerated demographic aging in MERCOSUR, combined with high levels of labor informality and fragmented health systems, poses a structural challenge to the sustainability of the health workforce. Countries such as Argentina and Uruguay exhibit demographic profiles comparable to Europe but with lower fiscal capacity and higher informality, while Brazil and Paraguay are undergoing rapid demographic transitions that foreshadow future pressures.
The health workforce, particularly in primary care, is aging in parallel, with a high percentage of physicians and nurses aged 45 and above. This, coupled with shortages of new professionals and talent migration, projects a critical deficit by 2030. This shortfall is exacerbated by increasing demand for mental health and psychosocial support services (MHPSS), with insufficient supply and institutional support for healthcare personnel well-being.
Artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a strategic decision-making layer capable of supporting population surveillance, workforce planning, and clinical and organizational decision-making. However, its implementation must be framed within robust digital governance that ensures inclusion of multigenerational workers, protects data sovereignty, and prevents deepening inequalities, especially in contexts of high informality.
MERCOSUR positions itself as an ideal demonstrative region to pilot integrated solutions addressing aging, informality, mental health, and digital transformation, with a critical strategic window between 2026 and 2027 to define investments and policies that will shape health infrastructure for decades to come.
Seniors International Consulting (SICS) leads this integrative approach, proposing socio-technical AI architectures in health that integrate workforce, governance, and well-being, supporting governments and multilateral banks in transitioning from pilots to scalable, sustainable systems.
Introduction
The phenomenon of population aging in Latin America and the Caribbean, particularly within MERCOSUR, has accelerated in recent decades, generating profound transformations in the demand for and provision of health and social protection services. This process unfolds amid high labor informality and fragmented health systems, complicating the financial and operational sustainability of the health workforce.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has indicated that by 2030, the proportion of people over 60 will surpass those under 15 in the region, accompanied by significant increases in life expectancy but also years lived with chronic diseases and disabilities [1]. This reality imposes growing pressure on health systems, especially in primary care and mental health, where human resource shortages are critical.
Aging and Health Workforce in MERCOSUR
MERCOSUR countries present heterogeneous but converging demographic profiles toward accelerated aging. Argentina and Uruguay display age structures similar to Europe, with a high proportion of the population over 60, but with lower fiscal capacity and higher labor informality. Brazil and Paraguay, though younger demographically, experience rapid transitions that anticipate future pressures on their health and social protection systems [2].
The health workforce mirrors this aging trend, with a significant percentage of primary care physicians and nurses aged 45 or older. Challenges in replacing retirees, talent migration, and insufficient training of new professionals project a critical deficit by 2030 [3]. This deficit is compounded by rising demand for mental health and psychosocial support services (MHPSS), where specialized human resources are insufficient and healthcare personnel well-being is at risk due to burnout and chronic stress.
Artificial Intelligence as a Strategic Decision Layer
Artificial intelligence (AI) presents itself as a strategic tool to support population surveillance, workforce planning, and clinical and organizational decision-making in aging health systems. However, its deployment must be embedded within robust digital governance frameworks that guarantee inclusion of multigenerational workers, safeguard data sovereignty, and prevent exacerbation of inequalities, particularly in high-informality contexts [4].
AI can automate administrative tasks, enhance early detection of psychosocial risks, and optimize resource allocation, contributing to mitigating human resource deficits. Nonetheless, its design must be participatory and sensitive to the capacities and needs of older workers to avoid technological exclusion and work overload.
MERCOSUR as a Demonstrative Region and Strategic Window
MERCOSUR offers a unique environment to pilot integrated solutions addressing aging, informality, mental health, and digital transformation. The strategic window between 2026 and 2027 is critical for defining investments and policies that will condition health infrastructure for the coming decades [5].
Seniors International Consulting (SICS) leads this integrative approach, proposing socio-technical AI architectures in health that integrate workforce, governance, and well-being, supporting governments and multilateral banks in transitioning from pilots to scalable, sustainable systems.
The Reality Behind AI-Attributed Job Cuts: The Case of Block and Jack Dorsey
In 2026, Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Block (formerly Square), announced a 40% reduction in the company’s workforce, attributing these cuts to an AI-driven transformation. The company downsized from over 10,000 employees to fewer than 6,000, with Dorsey asserting that “a significantly smaller team, using the tools we are building, can do more and better” [6].
However, subsequent analyses and testimonies from current and former employees reveal that most layoffs were not due to AI actually performing the work but rather a correction following pandemic-driven overexpansion and strategic restructuring aimed at efficiency and investor confidence [7,8]. Some workers noted that AI cannot yet replace the complexity of their roles, and pressure to use these tools caused fatigue and concerns over loss of institutional knowledge [8].
CEO Dorsey defended the move as anticipating a trend most companies would adopt within the next year, aiming to avoid reactive forced changes [6]. The market responded positively, with Block’s shares rising 17% after the announcement.
This case exemplifies the gap between AI’s theoretical capacity and its real-world application, and how workforce reductions often rely on anticipations rather than concrete evidence of effective automation. It also reflects tensions between executive perspectives and workers’ experiences, who understand the complexity, judgment, and relationships AI cannot yet replicate [8].
References
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Aging in Latin America and the Caribbean: Inclusion and Rights of Older Persons [Internet]. Santiago: ECLAC; 2023 [cited 2026 Apr 11]. Available from: https://www.cepal.org/en/publications/45678-aging-latin-america-caribbean-inclusion-rights-older-persons
CAF - Development Bank of Latin America. What are the challenges for healthcare and pension systems in the context of an aging Latin American population? [Internet]. 2020 Nov 3 [cited 2026 Apr 11]. Available from: https://www.caf.com/en/currently/news/en-30-anos-se-duplicara-la-poblacion-con-mas-de-65-anos-en-america-latina-cuales-son-los-desafios-en-salud-y-pensiones/
Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Aging in Latin America: By 2030 there will be more people over 60 than under 15 [Internet]. 2023 Apr 27 [cited 2026 Apr 11]. Available from: https://www.paho.org/en/news/27-4-2023-aging-latin-america-2030-there-will-be-more-people-over-60-than-under-15
World Economic Forum. How Autonomous AI Can Drive Workforce Transformation [Internet]. 2025 May [cited 2026 Apr 11]. Available from: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/05/how-autonomous-ai-can-drive-workforce-transformation/
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. The Future of Work: Trends and Challenges Towards 2030 [Internet]. 2026 [cited 2026 Apr 11]. Available from: https://educacioncontinua.uc.cl/noticias/futuro-del-trabajo-tendencias-2030
Maruf R. Block lays off nearly half its staff because of AI. Its CEO said most companies will do the same. CNN Business. 2026 Feb 26 [cited 2026 Apr 11]. Available from: https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/26/business/block-layoffs-ai-jack-dorsey
Angelo J. Block CEO Jack Dorsey lays off nearly half of his staff because of AI and predicts most companies will make similar cuts in the next year. Fortune. 2026 Feb 27 [cited 2026 Apr 11]. Available from: https://fortune.com/2026/02/27/block-jack-dorsey-ceo-xyz-stock-square-4000-ai-layoffs/
Mansoor S. Current and former Block workers say AI can’t do their jobs after Jack Dorsey’s mass layoffs: ‘You can’t really AI that’. The Guardian. 2026 Mar 8 [cited 2026 Apr 11]. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/mar/08/block-ai-layoffs-jack-dorsey